The situation is DYNAMIC, it depends terribly on our behavior. What was clear and we have during this week after returning to schools is the slowdown in the decline in the number of infected. The decline will be during this week and most likely during the next week, but that decline will stop during the next week.
Whether stagnation will occur or the numbers will start to grow depends on several factors – epidemiologist and member of the Crisis Staff, Dr. Predrag Kon, told “Blic”.
He explained that it is very likely that at that high level, around 2,000 or more infected numbers will remain for a very long time.
The epidemiologist reminded of last year’s autumn wave and the situation when, after a large number of infected people, there was a decrease at the end of December. At that time, he reminds, we did not have a drastic decrease, but the numbers between the two subwaves – autumn and spring, remained at a high level.
– It is a rather silly situation even now. All further stories are theoretical and our wishes. On the one hand, further figures depend on vaccination, on the other hand, we have fame and we are facing a serious decision related to the winter break – said the epidemiologist.
“No place where infection can occur should be left out”
Speaking about further measures and what we can expect, the epidemiologist referred to the code of the pass. There has been a lot of controversy in the previous days as to whether they could be introduced for cinemas, theaters, concerts, matches, but also gyms and beauty salons.
– Of course, that’s what he’s thinking. In the basic idea, Kovid passes were not intended only for catering facilities, but also in all places where infection can occur. The important thing is that we still don’t have a 24-hour pass. This is the first and basic request, and all this would go along with it – said a member of the Crisis Staff.
Kon pointed out that all those events where transmission can take place should not be left out.
– The dynamics of that is not part of the thinking of the Crisis Staff, but the way of implementation, introduction, control, which is now incomparably greater, and that seems to have given results – said Kon.
He also referred to the New Year’s Eve, emphasizing that it is too early to talk about it a month and a half earlier.
– We should seriously consult about that within the first medical, and later the rest of the Crisis Staff. Every local self-government, including the City of Belgrade, is responsible for organizing the New Year’s Eve. They can make a decision to hold the reception, but within the measures that have been determined – said a member of the Crisis Staff.
He reminds that covid passes have now been introduced and that this should be the absolute minimum for the reception.
– I am against any such gathering, it should be clear. We will see what will happen, if the situation gets much worse, we will certainly not sit and keep quiet about the reception – Dr. Kon is clear.
“Moving winter break useful”
What can be expected further is the return of a larger number of infected people to schools as it was before the mini-holidays.
– The next blow will depend on it. What comes from Europe is related to delta plus strain, which has not been discovered in our country yet. This is not a break, it is far from a break we have more than 3,000 infected. We are still in an emergency situation, it is not catastrophic, but we cannot be satisfied – he said.
Speaking about the possible postponement of the winter break, he said that they have not yet officially discussed the topic, but that they should exchange opinions through groups, invitations and conversations.
– In any case, we know that big holidays such as St. Nicholas, Catholic Christmas, and then the New Year are a great epidemiological risk. They are spiritually necessary, but they are an additional risk. Reducing the population of one million, we need to understand that a million people are in schools indoors, giving a break at that moment is something that we think is useful, especially in terms of the flu – said Kon.
A member of the Crisis Staff added that the flu has not been present yet, but that if it appeared, it would cause an additional risk, because it would be difficult to separate the patients.
– It is enough to just imagine, although we do not expect that, we think about it preventively. I heard that the minister said that we are knocking on the open door and that is very good, especially since the school team is doing a great job – said Kon.
He referred to the just-concluded autumn vacation and how much it is an indicator of whether it has borne fruit when it comes to the number of infected people.
– It is quite clearly shown that in the structure of diseases in the preschool and school age, there was a decrease in the number of laboratory-confirmed cases of infection from 18.19 percent to 13.14 percent. So we have an improvement of five percent – said Kon and added that there are fewer infected children in Belgrade after the holidays – five percent less in primary and 10 percent less in secondary schools.
As he further claims, this is a clear indication that the measures have yielded results – when we have a decline in the overall level, and one group stands out (in this case primary and pre-school children) with a larger decline.
“Realistically the booster dose will last longer”
Speaking about the third dose, Kon said that it is the most important one now.
– Now that we talk about the duration of the booster dose, we are dealing with speculation. What can be expected is that it will last longer than the first two, that would be realistic to expect. There may be a drop in the number of protection and that more doses will be necessary in the next period, but today no one can clearly claim that – the epidemiologist explains for “Blic”.
Kon points out that it is important to prepare for all this, and that vaccination is the primary prevention compared to everything else, and that it is the foundation of protecting the population.
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